Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kyrgyzstan win with a probability of 48.19%. A win for Philippines had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kyrgyzstan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Philippines win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.