Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philippines win with a probability of 91.32%. A draw had a probability of 6.3% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 2.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philippines win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (11.08%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.93%), while for a Nepal win it was 1-2 (0.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philippines would win this match.