International Friendlies
Jun 5, 2026 1.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Hong Kong Stadium
  • Juninho 5' goal
  • Vas Nuñez 33' yellowcard
  • Ng Yu-Hei 81' goal
  • yellowcard Munkh-Orgil Orkhon 35'

Hong Kong vs Mongolia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hong Kong

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Mar 26, 2026 12.15pm
Nepal 0 - 0 Hong Kong

Mongolia

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
May 31, 2026 12.30pm
Singapore 4 - 0 Mongolia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 12.17% and a win for Mongolia had a probability of 12.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 1-0 (7.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.46%) , while for a Mongolia win it was 1-2 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.

Result

Hong Kong 75.79% ▲ (+0.22)
Draw 12.17% ▼ (-0.07)
Mongolia 12.05% ▼ (-0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.74% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 87.29% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 12.71% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 71.18% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 28.82% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 50.95% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 3.5 49.05% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 4.5 41.23% ▲ (+0.20)
Under 4.5 58.77% ▼ (-0.20)

First Half Winner

Hong Kong 72.46% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 22.19% ▲ (+0.11)
Mongolia 5.35%

Team To Score First

Hong Kong 83.16% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 2.93% ▼ (-0.03)
Mongolia 13.91% ▲ (+0.05)

Corners

Over 8 57.87% ▼ (-0.14)
Equal 8 10.6% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 31.52% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 9 47.05% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 9 10.82% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 9 42.13% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 10.5 36.83% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 10.5 63.17% ▲ (+0.10)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 1.5 73.61% ▲ (+0.21)
Under 1.5 26.39% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 2.5 53.85% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 46.15% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 35.28% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 3.5 64.72% ▼ (-0.24)

Mongolia Goals

Over 0.5 35.77% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 0.5 64.23% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 1.5 15.41% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 1.5 84.59% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 2.5 5.55% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 94.45% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 1.85% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 98.15% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Hong Kong 75.79%
Draw 12.16%
Mongolia 12.06%
Hong Kong
3-0 @ 9.95% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 9.06% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 7.08% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 6.6% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.59%
3-2 @ 2.29%
Other @ 35.22% ▲ (+0.23)
Total : 75.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 5.46% ▼ (-0.05)
2-2 @ 2.97% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 2.93% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.06%
Total : 12.16%
Mongolia
1-2 @ 3.01% ▼ (-0.02)
0-1 @ 2.71% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 1.59% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 1.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.79% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 12.06%