Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 12.17% and a win for Mongolia had a probability of 12.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 1-0 (7.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.46%) , while for a Mongolia win it was 1-2 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.