Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 54.18%. A win for Nepal had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.27%). The likeliest Nepal win was 2-1 (5.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.