Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Malta had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Malta win was 0-1 (8.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.