Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 0-1 (7.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.