After their impressive comeback from Champions League heartbreak continued with a fortunate victory in midweek, Inter Milan welcome Serie A newcomers Spezia to San Siro on Sunday afternoon.
Though the visitors' impressive start to life in the top flight has come to a halt in recent weeks, Vincenzo Italiano's side remain four points clear of the relegation zone after they let slip a two-goal advantage on Wednesday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Inter somehow kept a clean sheet last time out, as regular go-to man Romelu Lukaku converted a match-winning penalty drawn by the much-improved Matteo Darmian, who has left expensive summer signing Achraf Hakimi in the shade so far this term.
That hard-earned victory helped Antonio Conte's team to move closer to city rivals AC Milan at the top of the table and against Spezia their aim will be to pile more pressure on the Rossoneri with a sixth successive league win. The Nerazzurri currently occupy second place in the standings on 27 points, now just one behind Milan.
Inter have scored 30 league goals in their first 12 Serie A games for the first time since 1960-61, many of which have been attributable to the remarkable Lukaku in one way or another.
The Belgian striker is one of only three players to have tallied double figures in each of the last nine seasons in the top five European leagues, alongside Cristiano Ronaldo and Robert Lewandowski.
If Lukaku starts on Sunday, it will be his 300th game in the Premier League or Serie A and he has scored against 42 different teams, with 146 goals in total – fewer only than Edin Dzeko (48) in comparable terms. Against humble Spezia, the prolific frontman will expect to notch up victim number 43.
© Reuters
As the modest visitors have spent their entire history in Calcio's lower echelons, the last time they met the Nerazzurri was back in August 1989 - a 1-0 Coppa Italia defeat sealed by Jurgen Klinsmann's goal for a Giovanni Trapattoni-coached Inter side.
Though not quite in the Lukaku bracket, Spezia have unearthed their own goalscoring hero of late, as French forward M'Bala Nzola returned against Bologna in midweek to bag a brace.
However, his team conspired to almost let slip even a point in the end, conceding twice late on to draw 2-2 upon their belated return to the upgraded Stadio Alberto Picco. With those goals, the Troyes-born striker moved onto six goals in eight appearances so far - incredibly, that tally has been achieved from just eight shots on goal altogether.
In Spezia's last five games, coach Vincenzo Italiano has presided over what was perhaps an inevitable downturn in fortunes and there have been three draws, two defeats and no victory in that spell. Their last success was more than a month ago - a 3-0 win over fellow promoted side Benevento.
Italiano's team has racked up an impressive 17 goals through their positive approach, but also conceded 25 - along with Crotone, the worst defensive record in the top flight.
Away from home, the Bianconeri have in fact picked up eight of their 11 points won to date, proving that they prefer utilising the pace and power of Nzola on the counter-attack.
Nevertheless, opportunities are likely to be few and far between since Sunday's opponents Inter have rediscovered their defensive vigour recently and look in no mood to be stopped in their pursuit of arch-rivals Milan.
Inter Milan Serie A form: DWWWWW
Inter Milan form (all competitions): WWWDWW
Spezia Serie A form: WDDLLD
Spezia form (all competitions): DWDLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Inter's Marcelo Brozovic participation on Sunday remains doubtful due to a foot injury, while Arturo Vidal most likely misses out with the thigh strain that has kept him sidelined of late. Rarely-used midfielder Radja Nainggolan has returned from a calf problem and Achraf Hakimi should also be available again, but ex-Arsenal forward Alexis Sanchez's thigh injury may rule him out until after the winter break.
Stefano Sensi would be in line to replace Brozovic if the Croatia midfielder is not fit to make Antonio Conte's 3-5-2 lineup, with Hakimi potentially coming in for his impressive deputy Matteo Darmian.
Uruguayan defender Juan Ramos could be back for Spezia after injury, though Federico Mattiello, Elio Capradossi and goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet continue to recover.
Vincenzo Italiano could have Cristian Dell'Orco and on-loan forward Daniele Verde back in the fold, but Bulgaria striker Andrey Galabinov will not return until January.
Centre-back Julian Chabot is suspended, so captain Claudio Terzi should come back into the Spezia back four.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Gagliardini, Barella, Sensi, Perisic; Lukaku, Martinez
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Ferrer, Terzi, Erlic, Bastoni; Pobega, Ricci, Estevez; Gyasi, Nzola, Farias
We say: Inter Milan 3-1 Spezia
There seems little that can halt the growing momentum of Inter - even abject European failure - as they drive closer to the top of Serie A's Christmas tree.
Though Spezia generally travel well, they have stalled of late and will be no match for a motivated Nerazzurri attack this Sunday.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 63.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 16.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 1-0 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.94%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (4.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Inter Milan in this match.
