Inter Milan will welcome basement side Salernitana to San Siro on Friday evening knowing that a victory would see them move to the top of the Serie A table.
The reigning Italian champions are currently third in the division, two points behind leaders Napoli, while Salernitana sit 20th, 10 points from the safety of 17th spot ahead of the next set of fixtures.
Match preview
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Inter's winless run in all competitions stretched to five matches on Tuesday evening, with the club playing out a goalless draw with bitter rivals AC Milan in the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final.
Simone Inzaghi's side also face an uphill task to qualify for the quarter-finals of the Champions League, having lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool in the first leg of their last-16 tie, while they have picked up just two points from their last four league games against AC Milan, Napoli, Sassuolo and Genoa.
Indeed, Inter have not been victorious in Italy's top flight since beating Venezia on January 22, but a record of 55 points from 26 matches has left them in third spot in the table, just two points behind leaders Napoli, so a victory on Friday evening would see them move to the summit.
The reigning champions have actually lost their last two home league matches against AC Milan and Sassuolo, while it is four games without a victory at home in all competitions, which is concerning form for the club at such a vital stage of the campaign.
The Black and Blues thumped Salernitana 5-0 in the reverse match between the two sides earlier this season, but they have lost two of their last four games against the side currently at the bottom of the table.
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Salernitana, who secured a return to the top flight by finishing second in Serie B last term, have found it difficult to compete in Serie A this season, picking up just 15 points from their 25 matches.
The strugglers are 10 points behind 17th-placed Cagliari but do have two games in hand on the side directly above the relegation zone, so their position is not terminal when it comes to avoiding relegation.
Salernitana will also bring a four-game unbeaten run into Friday's contest, sharing the points with Spezia, Genoa, AC Milan and Bologna since a heavy defeat at Napoli on January 23.
Davide Nicola was appointed head coach in the middle of last month, and he is yet to taste defeat at the club, and the recent draws with AC Milan and Bologna will have improved confidence in the camp.
That said, I Granata have the worst away record in Serie A during the 2021-22 campaign, picking up just eight points from their 13 matches, losing nine times in the process.
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Team News
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Inter's squad is in excellent shape at the moment, with Inzaghi expected to have a full complement of players available for this match, providing that there are no late issues.
As a result, it would not be a surprise to see the same XI that lined up against AC Milan in the Coppa Italia, with Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko again operating as the front two in a 3-5-2 formation.
Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sanchez and Joaquin Correa are among the players pushing for spots in the side, but all three are expected to start on the bench once again, while Ivan Perisic should again keep out Robin Gosens.
As for Salernitana, Franck Ribery is a doubt after being taken to hospital with a minor head injury following a car crash, so there could be a starting role for Diego Perotti.
Ivan Radovanovic, Matteo Ruggeri, Andrea Schiavone and Mamadou Coulibaly will also be unavailable for selection at San Siro on Friday night through injury.
The starting side is expected to be close to the one that took to the field for the first whistle against Bologna last time out, with Milan Duric leading the line and Simone Verdi playing off the left.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Dzeko, Martinez
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Dragusin, Fazio, Ranieri; L Coulibaly, Ederson; Kastanos, Perotti, Verdi; Duric
We say: Inter Milan 2-0 Salernitana
Inter's recent form has been patchy, but the Italian champions will be confident of returning to winning ways on Friday night. Salernitana have proved difficult to overcome in recent weeks, but we are expecting Inzaghi's side to move to the top of the table with a routine two-goal success.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 80.28%. A draw had a probability of 13.2% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 6.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.62%) and 1-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.27%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (2.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
