Serie A returns after its brief winter break with a David versus Goliath-style encounter between second-from-top Inter Milan and second-bottom Crotone on Sunday.
The Nerazzurri come into 2021 on a run of seven consecutive league wins, while their modest visitors ended a difficult first part of the campaign with a rare win over Parma.
Match preview
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Antonio Conte's Inter squad enter the new year in a head-to-head Scudetto battle with their fellow San Siro-sharers AC Milan and, so far, they have won 10 times and suffered only one league defeat - in the derby against their enduring Rossoneri rivals.
Despite having four points less than at the same stage last year, Inter will justifiably believe that their chances of finally reclaiming the championship after an era of Juventus dominance are better than at any time in the last decade.
Their agonising exit from the Champions League - and European competition entirely - can only serve to help the Nerazzurri in knocking the Old Lady from her perch, as Inter will predominantly play only one game per week - with just a possible handful of midweek Coppa Italia ties to complete before the end of spring.
As befits an expensively assembled outfit with an array of attacking options, Conte's men have the best goalscoring record in Serie A - with 34 goals so far - and their final win of a year which saw them narrowly miss out on league and European success in the summer came at Verona, with a 2-1 victory being sealed by goals from Lautaro Martinez and Milan Skriniar.
Martinez's volleyed strike moved the streaky striker onto six goals in Serie A this season on a rare occasion when Romelu Lukaku (top scorer on 11 goals) did not hit the target. Wing-back Achraf Hakimi supplied a fourth assist of his first campaign in the Nerazzurri shirt at the Bentegodi, and the former Real Madrid man has been among the club's most impressive performers in recent weeks.
Though Inter have conceded 11 goals at home already, averaging just over 1.5 per game, their defence has begun to return to its previous resolute best lately and will be a tough obstacle for Crotone to surmount on Sunday afternoon.
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In their last match of a mixed year - when they secured promotion to the top flight but then took several months to register a first win of the 2020-21 campaign - Crotone overcame fellow strugglers Parma 2-1 at home.
A fine brace from Brazilian forward Junior Messias - who seems to be finally sparking into life - helped the Calabrian side finally move off the bottom of the league table through just their second victory of the Serie A season.
The pacy striker, having worked his way up through the lower divisons of Italian football, now has five top-flight goals and his two doubles have led to wins against clubs that are just above Crotone in the table. Now with nine points, they are within touching distance of Spezia (11) and Parma (12) who sit just above the relegation zone.
With seven of those points gleaned from their last four outings, Gli Squali have belatedly begun to find their feet back in Serie A.
However, conceding too many goals - a total of 29 so far - gives them the second-worst defensive record in the league together with Spezia and Giovanni Stroppa's men arrive in Milan with most observers still seeing them as easy meat for in-form Inter.
Although Crotone were able to hold Juventus to an improbable 1-1 draw that earned their first point of the season, the New Year begins with three similarly tough encounters - first against Inter, then at home to Roma before a tricky trip to Verona.
On the road, the Rossoblu have picked up only two Serie A points, conceding 16 goals at a rate of 2.29 per game while scoring just five, so Inter will expect to brush their first visitors of the year to San Siro aside this weekend with the minimum of fuss.
Inter Milan Serie A form: WWWWWW
Inter Milan form (all competitions): WDWWWW
Crotone Serie A form: LLWDLW
Team News
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Antonio Conte can benefit from a shortening injury list, though there are still a handful of Inter absentees. Young striker Andrea Pinamonti and midfielder Matias Vecino - who is expected to leave the club during the transfer window - remain out, while injury-prone Alexis Sanchez may only be ready for a spot on the bench.
After a fine spell of form to end 2020, Ashley Young should again be favoured to alternative wing-back option Ivan Perisic, with fast-improving Achraf Hakimi taking the right flank in Conte's customary 3-5-2 setup.
As Sanchez is still struggling for fitness, Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez will start up front, while Nicolo Barella plays in behind them - with Stefano Sensi most likely to feature from the bench.
Visiting coach Giovanni Stroppa also has few men missing, though they include significant cogs in the Crotone machine. Midfield creator Ahmed Benali, experienced campaigner Luca Cigarini and right-back Andrea Rispoli are set to sit on the sidelines.
Pedro Pereira, on loan from Benfica, and direct wing-back Arkadiusz Reca will be tasked with countering Inter's strong attacking options out wide, as Stroppa also prefers a 3-5-2 formation.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Barella, Brozovic, Vidal, Young; Lukaku, Martinez
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Magallan, Marrone, Luperto; Pereira, Molina, Petriccione, Vulic, Reca; Simy, Messias
We say: Inter Milan 3-1 Crotone
Inter can afford to pick a full-strength side to take on their plucky Calabrian challengers this Sunday and - after a week's rest and recuperation - look well-placed to continue their relentless pursuit of Milan at the top of the table.
Though Crotone have undoubtedly improved, their defensive inadequacies can be ruthlessly exposed by the Nerazzurri's high-calibre front line at San Siro.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 64.45%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Crotone had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 1-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.14%), while for a Crotone win it was 1-2 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
