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Hoffenheim logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 8, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Rhein-Neckar-Arena
Augsburg logo

Hoffenheim
3 - 1
Augsburg

Bebou (38', 44'), Raum (90+3')
Baumgartner (75')
FT(HT: 2-1)

Preview: Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Hoffenheim and Augsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides at opposite ends of the Bundesliga spectrum meet on Saturday, as fifth-placed Hoffenheim get the second half of the season underway by hosting lowly Augsburg.

Resuming after the midwinter break, the home side will hope to extend a six-match unbeaten run by beating opponents that picked up five points from their last three games before the interval to sit clear of the drop zone.


Match preview

Hoffenheim coach Sebastian Hoeness pictured on February 18, 2021© Reuters

Putting their credentials as European contenders to the test at the end of 2021, Hoffenheim were able to take successive draws away from clashes with Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Monchengladbach to round off a successful first half of the campaign.

On the latter occasion, Kevin Akpoguma's stoppage-time strike salvaged a hard-earned point from a match they had dominated in terms of both possession and shots on goal; maintaining their undefeated streak.

Following a goal-laden run of four wins from their previous four fixtures, Die Kraichgauer have stormed into European contention since early November, and could climb as high as third if results go their way this weekend.

Sebastian Hoeness has also steered his side to 16 of a possible 18 points from their last six home games, so they will be confident of picking up where they left off at their Sinsheim headquarters on Saturday.

Not only that, but Hoffenheim began their campaign with a 4-0 win at Augsburg on the opening day, so - on paper, at least - their first opponents of the new year should also be ideal fodder for a team targeting a return to continental competition.

Dallas forward Ricardo Pepi pictured in October 2021© Reuters

Despite slim rays of light breaking through the darkness towards the end of their dismal Hinrunde, struggling Augsburg return to competitive action sitting 15th in the Bundesliga standings.

Just a point above the relegation playoff spot currently occupied by Stuttgart, only drawing two and winning one of their last three outings before the break has kept Die Fuggerstadters' heads above water.

After a 2-0 victory at Koln, head coach Markus Weinzierl had an 86th-minute Daniel Caligiuri equaliser to thank for securing a point against Leipzig days later, before his side concluded 2021 with a frustrating goalless draw versus rock-bottom Furth.

Given Augsburg's predicament, the mid-season arrival of American prospect Ricardo Pepi could prove a valuable investment for a team in need of a regular scorer - they currently find the net at a rate of just one goal per game.

The teenager's tally of 13 goals in 31 MLS matches this term for FC Dallas drew much speculation about whether he would become the latest player to tread the well-worn path from the US to the Bundesliga, particularly having trained with Bayern Munich early last year.

Augsburg, then, will hope he can help them build on the foundation of losing just one of their last six games - a period which kicked off with a memorable win over Bavarian rivals Bayern. However, the triumph in Cologne remains their only away win of the season ahead of this weekend's game.

Hoffenheim Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D

Augsburg Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D



Team News

Hoffenheim's Munas Dabbur celebrates scoring their first goal on February 13, 2021© Reuters

Hoffenheim are expected to continue with their successful 3-4-2-1 setup on Saturday, though some of the personnel is likely to change from their last outing before the break.

While Munas Dabbur and Georginio Rutter started against Gladbach, Togolese striker Ihlas Bebou could be recalled to form a front duo with Andrej Kramaric, who needs one more goal to reach a century for the club. Despite only netting twice in the league this season, a total of seven assists - including three against Augsburg last time the sides met - make the Croatian striker a valuable attacking outlet.

Meanwhile, Diadie Samassekou has been selected to represent Mali at the Africa Nations Cup, and Kasim Adams, Ermin Bicakcic, Robert Skov, Sargis Adamyan and Havard Nordtveit are also unavailable through illness or injury.

In his second loan spell from Bayern Munich, Chris Richards should return to the hosts' defence, where he could come up against international teammate Ricardo Pepi - the youngest player to score a hat-trick in MLS history.

The US league's Young Player of the Year may start on the bench for Augsburg following his move across the Atlantic, while Reece Oxford must serve a suspension; opening the door for Felix Uduokhai to return in central defence.

Alongside Oxford, Alfred Finnbogason, Tomas Koubek and Tobias Strobl - who has a knee injury - will also be sidelined.

Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Vogt, Richards; Akpoguma, Stiller, Geiger, Raum; Baumgartner; Kramaric, Bebou

Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Iago; Caligiuri, Maier, Dorsch, Vargas; Zeqiri, Hahn


SM words green background

We say: Hoffenheim 2-1 Augsburg

Upwardly mobile Hoffenheim were in fine form before the break, and there seems no reason why they cannot continue where they left off last year.

A greater range of attacking options allied to home advantage makes them strong favourites to return to Bundesliga action with a win - keeping them in the wide-open hunt for a top four place.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 20.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Hoffenheim vs Augsburg

Hoffenheim
85.1%
Draw
7.5%
Augsburg
7.5%
67
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


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