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Gremio
Brasileiro | Gameweek 38
Dec 10, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Estádio Olímpico Monumental
Atletico Mineiro

Gremio
4 - 3
Atletico Mineiro

Souza (6', 20'), Campaz (11'), Costa (59')
Thiago (37'), Costa (42'), Barbosa (71')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Dodo (26'), Vargas (35'), Hyoran (90+1')
Borrero (62')

Preview: Gremio vs. Atletico Mineiro - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Brasileiro clash between Gremio and Atletico Mineiro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Gremio know they must beat the Campeonato Brasileiro champions if they are to stand any chance of avoiding relegation.

The hosts enter the final matchday of the league season three points adrift of safety, while Atletico Mineiro will aim to wrap up their memorable campaign with a victory.


Match preview

Gremio's Matheus Henrique celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Gremio head into the final round of fixtures with a mountain to climb, knowing they need a victory to have any hope of remaining in the top flight.

Even if the home side beat the Brazilian champions, they still need both Juventude and Bahia to lose - a scenario that would see Gremio remain in the division based on games won.

Despite the fact that their destiny is not in their hands, the hosts must focus on the job at hand, and they enter the contest in fine form after losing once in their last six matches.

Although, they would have been disappointed not to have won their last encounter after Diego Souza gave Gremio the lead, but Renato Augusto equalised for Corinthians in the 86th minute to deny Vagner Mancini's side all three points.

If they are to beat Atletico Mineiro then the home advantage will be crucial and an unbeaten four-game home run suggests that they have every chance of overcoming the champions.

Atletico Mineiro coach Cuca on November 28, 2021© Reuters

Atletico Mineiro have been the standout team in the Campeonato Brasileiro, and their superb season has seen them win the league title at a canter.

Although the championship may be wrapped up, Atletico Mineiro have a two-legged Copa do Brasil final to look forward to and they will want to head into that occasion with a victory.

The momentum is with Cuca's side as they enter Thursday's fixture unbeaten in their last nine games - a run of fixtures that has included eight wins and one draw.

Their last encounter resulted in a seven-goal thriller with goals from Keno, Federico Zaracho, Jefferson Savarino and Hulk helping Atletico Mineiro to a 4-3 victory over Bragantino.

The away side will be confident of collecting three points against Gremio after avoiding defeat in their previous three away games.

Gremio Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D

Atletico Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Atletico Mineiro's Hulk celebrates scoring their first goal on November 28, 2021© Reuters

Walter Kannemann and Pedro Geromel are suspended for Gremio due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Those suspensions will result in a change in the centre of defence, with Ruan and Rodrigues set to replace the suspended duo.

Souza has top-scored for Gremio this season, and he will aim to add to his eight-goal tally on Thursday.

Atletico Mineiro have no injury issues to contend with, leaving Cuca with a fully fit squad to choose from.

Allan could come back into the midfield, which could result in Tche Tche dropping to the bench.

Meanwhile, Hulk is set to end the season as the league's top scorer after scoring 19 goals this term, and the forward is expected to come back into the starting lineup for the final match of the league season.

Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Rafinha, Ruan, Rodrigues, Barbosa; Santos, Silva, Campaz; Robert, Ferreira, Souza

Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Nathan, Alonso, Arana; Jair, Allan, Hulk; Zaracho, Keno, Costa


SM words green background

We say: Gremio 1-2 Atletico Mineiro

Gremio know they will have to throw caution to the wind to claim the three points on Thursday, and that could leave them vulnerable defensively, and we think Atletico Mineiro will take advantage to claim a narrow victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:472201:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect8489:
Written by
Ben Sully

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro

Gremio
9.1%
Draw
0.0%
Atletico Mineiro
90.9%
22
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