CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mexico
Jul 30, 2021 3.00am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT NRG Stadium
Canada
  • Orbelin Pineda 45'+2' goal
  • Erick Gutierrez 68' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 79' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 90'+9' goal
  • yellowcard Doneil Henry 45'
  • yellowcard Tajon Buchanan 49'
  • yellowcard Junior Hoilett 49'
  • goal Tajon Buchanan 57'
  • yellowcard Maxime Crepeau 90'+12'

Mexico vs Canada - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

Canada

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Canada had a probability of 19.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result

Mexico 57.51%
Draw 23.39%
Canada 19.11%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.09%

Goals

Over 2.5 49.51%
Under 2.5 50.49%
Over 3.5 27.58%
Under 3.5 72.42%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5 82.68%
Under 0.5 17.32%
Over 1.5 52.32%
Under 1.5 47.69%

Canada Goals

Over 0.5 59.38%
Under 0.5 40.63%
Over 1.5 22.78%
Under 1.5 77.22%

Score analysis

Mexico 57.5%
Draw 23.39%
Canada 19.11%
Mexico
1-0 @ 12.33%
2-0 @ 10.81%
2-1 @ 9.74%
3-0 @ 6.32%
3-1 @ 5.69%
4-0 @ 2.77%
3-2 @ 2.57%
4-1 @ 2.5%
4-2 @ 1.12%
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 57.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.11%
0-0 @ 7.04%
2-2 @ 4.39%
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 23.39%
Canada
0-1 @ 6.34%
1-2 @ 5.01%
0-2 @ 2.86%
1-3 @ 1.5%
2-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 19.11%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mexico
Jun 20, 2019 3.30am
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver
Canada
  • Roberto Alvarado 40' goal
  • Andres Guardado 54' goal
  • Andres Guardado 77' goal
  • goal Lucas Cavallini 75'
  • yellowcard Mark Kaye 79'

Form Data

Mexico 3 - 0 Honduras
Mexico 1 - 0 El Salvador
Guatemala 0 - 3 Mexico
Mexico 0 - 0 Trin. & Tob.
Mexico 4 - 0 Nigeria
Mexico 3 - 0 Panama
Costa Rica 0 - 2 Canada
USA 1 - 0 Canada
Haiti 1 - 4 Canada
Canada 4 - 1 Martinique
Canada 3 - 0 Haiti
Haiti 0 - 1 Canada