Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Comoros win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Comoros win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.68%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Comoros would win this match.