Freiburg and Hertha Berlin head into their Bundesliga meeting at the Europa-Park Stadion on Saturday with very different ambitions between now and the end of the season.
The hosts returned to winning ways last weekend to boost their chances of a shock top-four finish, whilst the visitors continued their winless start to 2022 with a humiliating defeat on home soil, which leaves them fighting for survival.
Match preview
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Freiburg put up an almighty fight to record just their second Bundesliga win of the New Year when they saw off relegation-threatened Augsburg 2-1 last weekend.
Nils Petersen netted for the second game running when he opened the scoring inside four minutes, and after being pegged back just 12 minutes later, defender Nico Schlotterbeck continued his fine season by providing his side with the lead again before the 30-minute mark, during a frantic first half.
No further goals were provided by either side despite plenty of opportunities, and Freiburg hung on for a potentially vital three points in their quest for the European places.
With wins for the two sides directly above them in the table across the weekend - Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig - Christian Streich's side remained unmoved in sixth spot despite their victory, but the three points ensured that Saturday's hosts remain in touch with some of Germany's biggest teams, as they look to upset the odds to qualify for next season's Champions League.
They now get set to face another struggling side on Saturday, as Freiburg look to make it successive Bundesliga victories for the first time since October, when their best-ever start to a top-flight campaign was in full flow.
Despite that incredible start to the season slowing down either side of the winter break, Streich will be confident in his side's ability to see off their visitors on Saturday, particularly after defeating them 2-1 at the Olympiastadion back in October, and not losing a home meeting with their opponents since 2010.
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Meanwhile, Hertha's aspirations this season completely revolve around top-flight survival once more, despite their decent levels of investment over recent years.
Manager Tayfun Korkut arrived in December and began his reign with seven points from his opening four games, but since the 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the final game of 2021, he has failed to oversee a victory since.
Last weekend's 6-1 humiliation at the hands of Leipzig made it six winless games in the Bundesliga since the turn of the year, with a DFB-Pokal exit to city rivals Union Berlin sandwiched in between as well.
An opening 45 minutes in which Hertha found themselves with their backs against the wall for much of it, saw them deservedly head into the break at 1-0 down, but after Stevan Jovetic equalised just three minutes into the second half, the Old Lady looked on course to achieve a positive result against Die Roten Bullen.
However, Marc-Oliver Kempf conceded a penalty just after the hour mark and was sent off in the process, and from that moment on, Hertha capitulated and conceded from almost every Leipzig attack.
The odds will be against Korkut's side once more on matchday 24, and should his side fail to pick up any points yet again, they could well find themselves dropping into the relegation playoff spot come Sunday, with Augsburg trailing Hertha by just a single point heading into the weekend.
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Team News
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With no fresh injury concerns to contend with, Streich is likely to name an unchanged starting lineup for his Freiburg side on Saturday.
Petersen looks set to lead the line once more, with Lucas Holer having to settle for a place on the bench for a second game running.
Jonathan Schmid made his first start since August last weekend, and a solid display means he is expected to keep Lukas Kubler out of the side again.
Yannik Keitel is the only absentee for the hosts, with the midfielder ruled out for a couple of months due to a broken toe.
As for the visitors, central defenders Niklas Stark and Dedryck Boyata have been absent in recent weeks, but following returns to training, both are in contention to feature on Saturday, which could prove timely with Kempf being suspended and Marton Dardai being ruled out through injury.
Whilst central defence looks to no longer be a concern with the potential return of the duo, the goalkeeping department is a huge concern for Hertha.
First-choice goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow is ruled out after testing positive for COVID-19, whilst backup goalkeepers Rune Jarstein and Oliver Christensen are also ruled out, meaning one of Marcel Laurenz Lotka or Nils Korber must deputise between the posts.
Jovetic limped off with a thigh injury last weekend and remains a huge doubt for Saturday, meaning Hertha are desperately lacking options for the trip.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Schmid, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Sallai, Jeong, Grifo; Petersen
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Lotka; Pekarik, Gechter, Stark, Mittelstadt; Richter, Tousart, Darida, Serdar; Belfodil, Maolida
We say: Freiburg 2-0 Hertha Berlin
With Hertha enduring such torrid form and missing a number of players on Saturday, all signs are pointing towards a comfortable Freiburg win in our view.
The hosts are a tough side to beat on home soil and their visitors look in all sorts of trouble, so Freiburg look set to continue their charge towards European qualification, and pile the misery on their visitors in the process.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 59.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 19.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 0-1 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
