We are at the midway point of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A season, and a victory for Fortaleza on Sunday against Atletico Mineiro at their home stadium of Arena Castelao could really tighten the race for first place in the table.
Leao do Pici are six points back of the league leaders heading into this match, following their 4-2 defeat to Bahia last weekend, while Atletico were held 1-1 by Bragantino at the end of August.
Match preview
© Reuters
In over a century of football since their creation, Fortaleza have never captured the Serie A title, but with half of the season still to be played, they are in as good of a position to end that drought as they have ever been.
Things can change quickly in this league, and the Clube da Garotada have shown tremendous growth in 2021, currently sitting in third and only two points behind Palmeiras for second, after only avoiding relegation in 2020 thanks to a superior goal difference.
Before the start of the domestic campaign, Enderson Moreira was relieved of his duties, and Juan Pablo Vojvoda was brought in to rejuvenate this struggling side and restore their confidence, and he has done precisely that and then some.
Since his arrival, the Argentine has already led them to a third successive Campeonato Caerense trophy, and there is a real possibility that this team could not only earn a place in the Copa Libertadores next year but even win the Brazilian top flight in only their third season back in the top flight, after capturing the Serie B crown in 2018.
To reach the top of the mountain, they will need to do a better job of earning three points against the sides in the bottom half of the table, which is an area that they have struggled with so far, losing to Bahia last Saturday, while also dropping points previously against the likes of Cuiaba, Juventude and Gremio.
They have already beaten Atletico Mineiro, Palmeiras and Bragantino, so knowing all of that, losing points to the teams near the bottom could be what is holding this side back from first place at the moment.
This team have yet to lose at home in league play, while they have already nearly matched their goals total from 2020 (34), scoring 29 so far with another 19 games remaining.
© Reuters
Their lead atop the Brasileiro Serie A continues to shrink, with Galo now only four points clear of Palestra in the standings.
In their previous two league matches, this team have had to rescue some points near the end of a game, scoring with five minutes remaining in their last encounter against Braga after an own goal from Nathan put them behind after 15 minutes and then scoring with only six minutes left in their previous league game, to draw Fluminense.
They may be unbeaten in their last six league matches on the road, but Cuca knows that if they want to maintain their current lead and capture their first Serie A title since 1971, they have to start winning a lot more in the second half of the season.
Having a two-week break to rest might have come at a perfect time for this side, who seemed to become fatigued last month with a very demanding schedule in which they played nine games in Serie A, the Copa do Brasil and the Copa Libertadores with no more than five days rest in between each match.
That schedule will be equally demanding this month, as they are still in contention to win all three of those trophies, so the depth players on this team will need to step up to help this team maintain their narrow league lead.
Over the last two months, they have only lost one of their 18 matches in all competitions, so they know what it takes to grind it out and earn results.
In their opening game of the 2021 domestic campaign, they squandered a 1-0 lead to Fortaleza and conceded the winning goal deep into injury time, but it seems that Atletico have learned a lot since that late collapse as they have not lost a league match since that point when scoring first.
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Matheus Vargas scored his first goal in the domestic season last week, while Titi picked up his first assist and Yago Pikachu notched his fifth goal, putting him two back of Robson, who has not scored since August 7.
Fortaleza made three changes to the starting 11 against Bahia from the side who began the match versus Cuiaba as Jussa replaced Felipe in the midfield, and in attack, Angelo Henriquez and Romarinho were preferred to Matheus Vargas and David.
Lucas Crispim and Pikachu have become two prominent playmakers with nine assists combined this season, putting them both in the top 10 among players in the Brazilian top flight.
Hulk scored from the penalty spot in the opening game for Atletico against Fortaleza and has scored four more since then, putting him in a tie with Pikachu, Rossi, Edenilson and Giorgian De Arrascaeta four fourth in the league.
Everson is second in clean sheets with eight, just one back of Sport Recife keeper Mailson, but he conceded once in their last match despite his defence not allowing a single shot on target.
Eduardo Vargas will not be available for this game due to a yellow card suspension, Mariano replaced Guga at fullback in their final match last month, and Tche Tche started instead of Allan and Diego Costa made his long-awaited debut scoring the equaliser after coming on as a substitute.
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Boeck; Titi, Jackson, Tinga; Crispim, Edinho, Pikachu, Lima; Depietri, Romarinho, Robson
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Arana, Alonso, Nathan, Dodo; Tche Tche, Calebe; Hyoran, Fernandez, Savarino; Costa
We say: Fortaleza 1-2 Atletico Mineiro
Atletico should be refreshed after a much-needed break, and as good as Fortaleza have been against the top teams in the league, at the moment, Atletico just refuse to lose. Furthermore, with the addition of Diego Costa, they have an X-factor who can make a big difference.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
