Fluminense will hope to extend their unbeaten run at home to five games in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when they host Bragantino on Sunday at the Maracana.
Tricolor squandered a two-goal lead, drawing Cuiaba 2-2 in their last league encounter, while Braga are a step closer to advancing to the final of the Copa Sudamericana after beating Libertad 2-0 on Wednesday.
Match preview
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They got the start that they wanted on Monday, but after going up by two in the opening 20 minutes, Flu seemed to get a little complacent, and they paid for it as Cuiaba scored on two of their three targeted efforts.
With an opportunity this weekend to potentially move into a top-six position with a win and some help, Marcao knows that his side need to do a better job of closing out these matches when they take the lead.
Fluminense have scored the opening goal in every one of their league matches since he took the reins, but they came away victorious in only half of those encounters.
In their first matchup with Bragantino in early June, Flu did a terrific job of shutting down a dynamic and attack-minded squad, holding them to only four shots total in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil tie and keeping them off the scoresheet.
When they met them in Serie A play in the middle of June, they took advantage of their wide-open style of play, conceding two goals in the first half but storming back to equalise in injury time, and playing to a 2-2 draw.
Three of their next four league matches will be at home, and seeing as they have played more games than anyone in the Brasileiro Serie A this year, they have to start winning more games to put some pressure on the teams above them to try and force them to win as well.
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Another side who have struggled to finish the job of late would be Bragantino, as they have squandered second-half leads in two of their last three encounters.
Last Saturday, they had to fight their way back from a one-goal deficit to draw Bahia 1-1, and a win this weekend could potentially move them into a top-three position.
Mauricio Barbieri has seen his side perform exceptionally well all season away from home with six victories in this campaign, and they are currently unbeaten in their last four road fixtures in all competitions.
This is a complicated team to analyse because, on the one hand, they have shown that they are capable of being defensively responsible, conceding only one effort on target in their Copa Sudamericana match this week, but on the other hand they allowed 22 shots against Chapecoense, handing them their first victory of the season.
Unlike Flu, who only have the league title to play for at this point, Braga are still in the thick of a tight race in the Serie A table, and there is a good chance that they could make the final of the Copa Sudamericana, which means a lot less rest in between games and plenty of tough decisions for Barbieri on who to play.
If they want a shot at catching Atletico Mineiro atop the standings or at least earning a spot in the Copa Libertadores next year, then achieving some positive results in their next few games will be critical, as they follow up this match with a fixture against Corinthians followed by two games in three days versus Flamengo and Palmeiras, who are currently third and second in the table respectively.
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Team News
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Luiz Henrique scored his third goal of the season on Monday, putting him into a tie for the team lead with Lucca and Raul Bobadilla, who also scored in their draw.
There were two changes to their starting 11 against Cuiaba from the side who started in their Copa do Brasil defeat to Atletico Mineiro, with Matheus Martinelli replacing Wellington in the midfield and Bobadilla taking the spot of Fred up front.
Marcos Felipe is ninth in the league in clean sheets with six this season, with his last one coming in a 2-0 win over Bahia at the end of August.
Goals by Ytalo and Artur helped Braga win the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana earlier this week, with Cleiton collecting his first shutout since August 23.
Lucas Evangelista has only scored twice this season in league play, although one of those goals came against Flu in their first Serie A encounter of 2021 back in June.
Fabricio Bruno replaced Natan in central defence on Wednesday, Edimar started at the back instead of Luan Candido, Bruno Praxedes took Vitinho's spot in midfield, while Artur was inserted up front rather than Helinho.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Barcelos, Claro, Nino, Xavier; Yago Felipe, Martinelli, Cazares; Hernandez, Bobadilla, Henrique
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Candido; Evangelista, Jadsom, Raul; Artur, Ytalo, Cuello
We say: Fluminense 1-2 Bragantino
It has been exciting to watch Fluminense play this season but not always for the reasons Marcao would like, as they have allowed their opponents back into several games in this campaign.
Bragantino may not be clicking at the same rate of goals as they had at the start of this season, but their attention to detail away from home has been impressive of late.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.21%) and 1-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
