Coming in with a 4-1 lead from the first leg, Flamengo will look to book their place in the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday, when they play host to Paraguayan outfit Olimpia.
The Brazilian side dominated the away leg and look set to progress to the final four, although the visitors will arrive with nothing to lose as they look to bounce back from a poor run of form in all competitions.
Match preview
© Reuters
Flamengo cruised through the Copa Libertadores group stage, winning their opening three games over Velez Sarsfield, Union La Calera and LDU Quito and drawing the final three matches to top the table and advance to the final 16.
They then met Argentinian outfit Defensa y Justicia in the round of 16, and Michael fired them to a 1-0 away win in the first leg before Rodrigo Caio and Giorgian De Arrascaeta got on the scoresheet alongside a Vitinho brace to pick up a 4-1 win on home turf and a 5-1 aggregate victory.
That saw Renato Gaucho's men book a tie with Olimpia in the quarter-finals, and they established a comfortable 4-1 lead in Paraguay thanks to a Gabriel Barbosa brace and goals from Arrascaeta and Vitinho, while an Ivan Arturo Torres goal for their opponents on the stroke of half time may have just about kept the tie alive.
That win extended a strong run of form for Flamengo, as they have now won 10 of their last 11 games in all competitions, most recently defeating Sport Recife 2-0 to continue their climb up the Brazilian top flight, now occupying fifth spot with the chance to rise to second if they can convert their two games in hand into victories.
They will look to continue their strong run with another win on Wednesday to secure their passage to the semi-finals, as they take on an Olimpia side who arrive with the hopes of causing a major upset.
© Reuters
The Paraguayan outfit only narrowly qualified for the knockout stage of the Copa Libertadores, pipping Deportivo Tachira to second spot in their group as both finished on nine points.
A pair of wins over Always Ready and a thrashing of Tachira saw them through, although they did suffer a harmful 6-1 defeat at the hands of group winners Internacional.
El Expreso Decano then met Internacional in the round of 16, and they got revenge on the Brazilian side, progressing to the quarter-finals following a penalty shootout victory after two consecutive goalless draws.
However, the 4-1 thrashing in the first leg to Flamengo extended a poor run of form for Olimpia, with a recent 3-0 league defeat to Cerro Porteno making it four straight defeats in all competitions.
With nothing to lose in this encounter, El Tricampeon de America will arrive in search of a huge victory to overturn the three-goal deficit on Wednesday.
- D
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Given Flamengo's packed schedule, and their pursuit of the top spots in the Brazilian top flight accompanied by their dominant position in this tie, Gaucho may opt to rest some key players.
Bruno Henrique, Giorgian De Arrascaeta, Gabriel Barbosa and Everton Ribeiro may sit out from the start, opening up spots for the likes of Lazaro, Vitinho and Vitor Gabriel.
However, with the objective of seeing out a win, the defence should remain largely unchanged, with Bruno Viana and Leo Pereira expected to partner up in front of Diego Alves.
Olimpia do not have the option of rotation given their need for a big victory, meaning Walter Gonzalez, Derlis Gonzalez, Ramon Sosa and Roque Santa Cruz should all be deployed in attacking roles from the start as they chase the game.
Despite being sent off in the recent league defeat to Cerro Porteno, Ivan Arturo Torres and Richard Ortiz will be eligible to play on Wednesday, with their suspension instead carrying over to the next domestic game.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Matheuzinho, Viana, Pereira, Luis; Lazaro, Gomes, Arao, Vitinho; Gabriel, Pedro
Olimpia possible starting lineup:
Aguilar; Salazar, Salcedo, Ortiz, Torres; D Gonzalez, Ojeda, Sosa; Recalde; W Gonzalez, Santa Cruz
We say: Flamengo 2-1 Olimpia (Flamengo win 6-2 on aggregate)
While Flamengo's intensity will likely drop given their dominant position and having half an eye on the upcoming league schedule, they still have more than enough to secure victory over Olimpia once again.
The visitors will be forced to attack the game from the outset, and while we see them finding a goal, they will be open to the counter and the Brazilian giants should punish them on the break.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Olimpia had a probability of 12.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.48%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Olimpia win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
