2019 Copa Libertadores winners Flamengo host Copa Sudamericana holders Defensa y Justicia for the second leg of their last-16 tie on Thursday.
The two sides faced each other for the first time last week, with the Brazilians securing a narrow 1-0 victory against their Argentine counterparts in the first leg.
Match preview
© Reuters
Flamengo remain on course to reach the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores after Michael's 27th minute strike was enough to secure a slender victory against Defensa last week.
The Scarlet-Black have impressed in South America's elite competition this season, remaining unbeaten in their seven games so far, though it has not all been plain sailing for them domestically.
After losing four of their opening eight league matches, the defending Brasileiro champions decided to replace head coach Rogerio Ceni with recently-sacked Gremio boss Renato Gaucho.
The 58-year-old has won his first two games at the helm, including a comfortable 5-0 victory away at Bahia on Sunday. Retaining their domestic silverware seems to be a tall order, but continental success remains a possibility with one foot already in the quarter-finals.
Flamengo were eliminated at this stage of the competition last year, losing 6-4 on penalties to Racing Club, but securing at least a draw on Thursday will see them progress into the last eight.
© Reuters
Competing in the Copa Libertadores for just the second time in their history, Defensa y Justicia are still hopeful of progressing into the quarter-finals, despite needing to overturn a one-goal deficit.
The Hawks were eliminated in the group stages last year, but went on to win the Copa Sudamericana, their first continental piece of silverware.
That success and the experience gained from the latter stages of a major tournament should be fresh in the minds of Sebastian Beccacece's players and could help them as they prepare for the second leg.
Having said that, Defensa were never trailing from a first-leg encounter last season, as they will be on Thursday, and they will be facing a vastly more experienced club in this competition, so their task could prove more challenging to overcome.
Defensa head into the second leg after losing 2-1 away at Huracan in the Argentine Clausura. Several changes were made for that fixture and Beccacece is expected to field a stronger side in midweek, as the Hawks look to cause an upset and reach the last eight for the first time.
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Flamengo will be without Piris Da Motta (ankle), Rodrigo Caio (calf), Bruno Henrique (thigh) and Cesar (knee) due to injury.
Nine players that started the first leg also played over the weekend in the victory against Bahia, and Gaucho is set to name a similar side again on Thursday.
Midfielder Joao Gomes and Thiago Maia were both rested on Saturday but could be brought back into the first XI at the expense of William Arao and Diego.
Striker Gabriel Barbosa, who is currently the joint-top goalscorer in the Copa Libertadores with six strikes to his name, is expected to lead the line once again.
As for Defensa y Justicia, Lucas Barrios is likely to be dropped to the bench, despite scoring last weekend, with the club's top scorer Walter Bou set to start up front.
Rodrigo Contreras and Carlos Rotondi could provide Bou with support from the flanks, while Lautaro Escalante and Raul Loaiza are set to return to the centre of midfield.
Beccacece is likely to stick with a back five, shielding goalkeeper Ezequiel Unsain, though this formation could change during the match if the Argentines are required to push men further forward.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, G. Henrique, Pereira, Luis; Gomes, Maia; Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta, Michael; Barbosa
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; M. Rodriguez, Frias, J. Rodriguez, Cardona, Soto; Contreras, Escalante, Loaiza, Rotondi; Bou
We say: Flamengo 1-0 Defensa y Justicia (2-0 on aggregate)
With Defensa y Justicia needing to score if they are to progress to the quarter-finals, the pressure is on them to take the game to Flamengo and make life difficult for the hosts.
However, Gaucho has had an instant impact at his new club, making the Scarlet-Black difficult to break down. The Brazilians will be keen to make amends for last season's elimination at this stage and we can see them securing another narrow victory on Thursday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 60.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 16.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
