In only their second competitive fixture of the 2021-22 season, Fenerbahce welcome HJK Helsinki to the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium on Thursday for the first leg of their Europa League playoff round tie.
The Turkish giants qualified for this stage of the tournament via their league position, while HJK overcame Neftchi Baku in the previous round to book their plane tickets to Istanbul.
Match preview
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The agonising wait for a 20th Turkish top-flight title continued last season for Fenerbahce, who were hovering close to top spot for the majority of the campaign before being forced to settle for a third-placed finish behind Besiktas and Galatasaray.
However, Sari Kanaryalar - who have not lifted the Super Lig trophy aloft since the 2013-14 campaign - started the 2021-22 season as they mean to go on, as Mesut Ozil's first goal in 18 months propelled his side to a 1-0 success over Adana Demirspor on August 15.
The former Arsenal man was handed the captain's armband for that fixture and donned it with aplomb to net his first goal for Fenerbahce, and Ozil will now seek to harness all of his European experience to send the Turkish giants into the Europa League group stage for the first time since the 2018-19 season.
Vitor Pereira has only held his post for a matter of weeks, but his side also went unbeaten in seven pre-season matches and have their sights firmly set on reliving the glory days of old, while HJK prepare to travel to a ground where Fenerbahce have not conceded in their last four Europa League fixtures.
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Finnish champions HJK sought to make a name for themselves in the Champions League after easing to a 7-1 aggregate success over Buducnost in the first qualifying round, but they came unstuck against Scandinavian neighbours Malmo in round two and bowed out following a 4-3 defeat over two legs.
With the safety net of the Europa League ready and waiting, the 30-time Finnish champions could only play out a 2-2 draw with Neftchi in their first third-round battle, but they made light work of the Azerbaijani side at home, storming to a 3-0 success and making the group-stage dream ever closer to becoming a reality.
Many failed pursuits in the Champions League preliminary rounds have been noted in the history books, and only once before have HJK managed to reach the group stages of the Europa League, where they finished third in a group comprising of Torino, Club Brugge and Copenhagen in the 2014-15 season.
HJK's stronghold on the Veikkausliiga is showing no signs of letting up either, as Toni Koskela's men claimed a pair of 1-0 victories against KTP and Mariehamn either side of their win over Neftchi earlier this month, with the champions sitting pretty atop the pile with 41 points gleaned from 16 games.
The Finnish side may be classed as the underdogs heading into this fixture, especially with only one of their last four away games ending in victory, but they travel to Istanbul on a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions and cannot be written off.
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Team News
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Fenerbahce have moved to bring in former Premier League players Steven Caulker and Mbwana Samatta in the summer transfer window, with the latter expected to lead the line with support from Ozil and Irfan Kahveci.
Serdar Dursun had only been on the pitch for 25 minutes as a substitute at the weekend before sustaining a broken collarbone, and the 29-year-old joins Enner Valencia, Dimitrios Pelkas and Mert Hakan Yandas on the sidelines.
It would not be a surprise to see Ozan Tufan return to the middle of the park in place of Miha Zajc, where he will link up with the veteran Brazilian Luiz Gustavo.
HJK playmaker Atomu Tanaka will not feature again this season as he recovers from a serious knee problem, but new arrival Tim Sparv is back manning the engine room following his Euro 2020 exploits with Finland.
Roope Riski failed to fire in the weekend's victory over Mariehamn, but the 30-year-old notched up a brace in the second-leg win over Neftchi and is seemingly certain to lead the line.
Finland international Daniel O'Shaughnessy has been ever-present in Europe and should make his return to the rearguard here, most likely in place of Bubacar Djalo.
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Aziz, Szalai, Tisserand; Osayi-Samuel, Gustavo, Tufan, Novak; Kahveci, Samatta, Ozil
HJK Helsinki possible starting lineup:
Tannander; Tenho, Moren, O'Shaughnessy; Saksela, Sparv, Jair, Murillo; Olusanya, Ro. Riski, Browne
We say: Fenerbahce 2-0 HJK Helsinki
HJK are certainly capable of making this a much closer affair than it would appear on paper, but fatigue may creep in for the visitors in the middle of their domestic season.
Fenerbahce are expected to field a similar 3-4-3 system to that of their opponents and boast several more household names, so while HJK will put up a strong fight, we still expect Pereira's men to claim a first-leg advantage.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 32.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 1-0 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
