FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Feb 5, 2022 at 3pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
4 - 1
Fulham

Gundogan (6'), Stones (13'), Mahrez (53' pen., 57')
Walker (45+3')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Carvalho (4')

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 57.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 20.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Fulham win it was 0-1 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Fulham
57.71%	22.11%	20.18%

Both teams to score 54.9%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.37%

43.63%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.97%

66.02%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.14%

14.86%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.81%

43.18%

Fulham Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.48%

35.51%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.72%

72.28%

Score Analysis

Manchester City 57.71%

Fulham 20.18%

Draw 22.1%

Manchester City	Draw	Fulham
1-0 @ 10.06% 2-1 @ 9.93% 2-0 @ 9.59% 3-1 @ 6.31% 3-0 @ 6.1% 3-2 @ 3.27% 4-1 @ 3.01% 4-0 @ 2.91% 4-2 @ 1.56% 5-1 @ 1.15% 5-0 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.73% Total : 57.71%	1-1 @ 10.41% 0-0 @ 5.28% 2-2 @ 5.14% 3-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.1%	0-1 @ 5.46% 1-2 @ 5.39% 0-2 @ 2.83% 1-3 @ 1.86% 2-3 @ 1.77% 0-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.89% Total : 20.18%