FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round Qualifying

Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK

The Camping World Community Stadium (Horsham, West Sussex)

Horsham
1 - 0
Gorleston

Meekums (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Coverage of the FA Cup Fourth Round Qualifying clash between Horsham and Gorleston.

Form, Standings, Stats

Horsham

Last Game: Horsham 2-0 Margate
Tuesday, October 1 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Gorleston

Last Game: Gorleston 4-2 St Albans City
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Horsham win with a probability of 74.64%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Gorleston had a probability of 9.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Horsham win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.19%), while for a Gorleston win it was 1-2 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Horsham would win this match.

Result
Horsham	Draw	Gorleston
74.64% ( -0.29)	15.42% ( 0.14)	9.94% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 51.94% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.67% (

-0.2)

34.33% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.76% (

-0.23)

56.24% (

0.23)

Horsham Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.21% (

-0.11)

7.79% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.34% (

-0.27)

27.66% (

0.28)

Gorleston Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.33% (

0.15)

43.67% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.15% (

0.13)

79.85% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Horsham 74.63%

Gorleston 9.94%

Draw 15.42%

Horsham	Draw	Gorleston
2-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 9.43% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 6-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 74.63%	1-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.02% Total : 15.42%	1-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.93% Total : 9.94%