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FA Cup

Aston Villa logo
FA Cup | Fifth Round
Feb 28, 2025 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Cardiff City logo

Aston Villa
2 - 0
Cardiff

Asensio (68', 80')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Match Report

Marcos Asensio scores a second-half brace to guide Aston Villa past Championship side Cardiff City in the FA Cup fifth round.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's FA Cup clash between Aston Villa and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa
Tuesday, February 25 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Cardiff City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Cardiff 1-0 Hull City
Tuesday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 54.79%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 22.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-2 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawCardiff City
54.79% (-0.128 -0.13)22.6% (0.016000000000002 0.02)22.61% (0.113 0.11)
Both teams to score 56.86% (0.102 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.26% (0.064999999999998 0.06)42.74% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.86% (0.065999999999995 0.07)65.14% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.49% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)15.51% (0.020999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.58% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)44.42% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.3% (0.137 0.14)32.7% (-0.136 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.75% (0.155 0.16)69.25% (-0.154 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 54.79%
    Cardiff City 22.61%
    Draw 22.59%
Aston VillaDrawCardiff City
2-1 @ 9.85% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.45% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.81% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.12% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.47% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.42% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.85% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 2.55% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.59% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
5-0 @ 0.95% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 54.79%
1-1 @ 10.56%
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.018 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.07% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 22.59%
1-2 @ 5.91% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.67% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 3.17% (0.015 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.2% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.05% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.18% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 22.61%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Cardiff

Aston Villa
89.0%
Cardiff City
11.0%
163
Head to Head
Nov 30, 2022 7.30pm
Club Friendlies
Cardiff
3-1
Aston Villa
Tanner (40'), Etete (55', 73')
Ramsey (59')
> Preview
Apr 10, 2018 7.45pm
Aston Villa
1-0
Cardiff
Grealish (85')
Hourihane (20'), Snodgrass (45'), Johnstone (90'), Kodjia (95')

Paterson (37'), Gunnarsson (77'), Bennett (80'), Ward (89'), Peltier (90')
> Match Report
Aug 12, 2017 3pm
Cardiff
3-0
Aston Villa
Mendez-Laing (21', 71'), Hoilett (60')

Taylor (55')
Jan 2, 2017 3pm
Cardiff
1-0
Aston Villa
Ralls (16')
Ralls (27'), Gunnarsson (57'), Bamba (64'), Peltier (74')

Chester (42'), Grealish (60'), Bacuna (78'), Hutton (85')
Nov 26, 2016 3pm
Aston Villa
3-1
Cardiff
Adomah (24'), Kodjia (39'), Gestede (90' pen.)
Amavi (59'), Agbonlahor (65'), Gestede (86')
Lambert (28')
Lambert (17'), Pilkington (34'), Peltier (71'), Gunnarsson (78'), Morrison (89')
Peltier (84')