FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round Replays

Nov 15, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Kingsmeadow

AFC Wimbledon
3 - 1
Weymouth

Assal (48'), Chislett (61', 64')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ash (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between AFC Wimbledon and Weymouth, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Salford City 0-0 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Weymouth

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Weymouth 1-0 Braintree
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Weymouth had a probability of 18.78%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for a Weymouth win it was 1-2 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Weymouth
59.93% ( 0.34)	21.28% ( -0.15)	18.78% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 55.27% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.01% (

0.37)

41.98% (

-0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.61% (

0.37)

64.38% (

-0.37)

AFC Wimbledon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.38% (

0.22)

13.62% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.23% (

0.44)

40.77% (

-0.44)

Weymouth Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.99% (

0.01)

36.01% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.21% (

0.01)

72.79% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

AFC Wimbledon 59.93%

Weymouth 18.78%

Draw 21.28%

AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Weymouth
2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.75% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.16% Total : 59.93%	1-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.28%	1-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 18.78%