Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.