Exeter City can be crowned League Two champions on the final day this Saturday, when Port Vale visit St James Park, with the Grecians just needing to better Forest Green's result against Mansfield.
Port Vale still have a lot to play for themselves, currently sitting sixth, where they have an outside chance of gaining automatic promotion if other results go their way, or they could come very close to dropping out of the playoff spots with a big swing in goal difference.
Match preview
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After a decade trying to get out of the fourth division, Exeter finally secured promotion to League One with two games to spare after a 2-1 win against Barrow last month, but top spot is firmly in their hands and that will be the target this weekend.
Matthew Taylor's side enter this match on the back of a 1-1 draw against Northampton last Saturday, when Sam Nombe's equaliser sent the Grecians to the top of the league, after Forest Green slipped up against Harrogate.
Exeter have only lost once in their last 13 outings, and enter this match with high morale around the camp, which could be a big factor in spurring the hosts to victory this weekend.
In addition to a strong run of form, Taylor's team have only lost twice on home soil this season, suggesting that with this match being played at St James Park, Exeter are favourites to take three points and win the league on their own patch.
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Andy Crosby's side have hit a bad run of form at the wrong time of the season as far as they are concerned, having lost three consecutive matches for the first time since the turn of the New Year.
Newport County visited Vale Park on Monday, and the side from South Wales defeated the Valiants 2-1 after Ben Garrity had given the hosts hope when he equalised just after half time.
Perhaps luckily for Port Vale, they had secured enough points prior to this poor run of results to avoid dropping out of the playoffs ahead of the final day, and to miss out on the post-season mini tournament, they would have to lose heavily in Devon while Tranmere Rovers would have to secure a big win over Leyton Orient.
Out of the four teams currently sitting in playoff positions, Port Vale have conceded the fewest goals, confirming that their recent results have been uncharacteristic, having conceded seven goals in their last three matches.
In the reverse fixture between these two teams, a goalless draw was played out in Staffordshire, despite the hosts probably feeling as though they created enough chances to get on the scoresheet.
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Team News
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There are no new injury or suspension concerns for Taylor to deal with, and the hosts will use a 3-4-1-2 formation, which could be led by Offrande Zanzala and Jevani Brown up top.
Jonathan Grounds came into the side in place of Sam Stubbs last time out, but the latter is expected to return to the side in a back three alongside Cheick Diabate and Pierce Sweeney.
Matt Jay is currently Exeter's top goalscorer this season, having netted 14 goals in League Two, and the 26-year-old will operate in the number 10 role looking to add to his tally of goals.
The visitors are expected to line up in a similar formation to Exeter, with Jamie Proctor and James Wilson leading the line for the away outfit, looking to add to their 20 goals between them this season.
Connor Hall could come back into the defensive three in place of Chris Hussey, with Aaron Martin and Nathan Smith also making up that defensive line in front of goalkeeper Aidan Stone.
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Stubbs, Diabate, Sweeney; Sparkes, Dieng, Collins, Key; Jay; Zanzala, Brown
Port Vale possible starting lineup:
Stone; Hall, Martin, Smith; Benning, Charsley, Pett, Worrall; Garrity; Wilson, Proctor
We say: Exeter City 2-1 Port Vale
This encounter is likely to be a close affair with both teams still fighting for something on the final day of the campaign, but home advantage and a chance to clinch the league title should be enough motivation to push the home side over the line.
Port Vale's poor run is concerning, and Exeter are expected to pounce on that as an opportunity to finish this season in the best way possible.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 51.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
