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Everton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 26
Mar 1, 2021 at 8pm UK
Goodison Park
Southampton logo
Everton
1 - 0
Southampton
FT(HT: 1-0)

Armstrong (77'), Tella (80')

Preview: Everton vs. Southampton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Premier League clash between Everton and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Everton will be looking to make it back-to-back wins in the Premier League when they continue their campaign at home to an out-of-form Southampton team on Monday night.

The Toffees, who are currently seventh in the table, recorded a famous 2-0 win over bitter rivals Liverpool last weekend, while Southampton will enter the contest off the back of a 3-0 defeat at Leeds United.


Match preview

Everton's Richarlison celebrates scoring against Liverpool in the Premier League on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Goals from Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson handed Everton a long-awaited Premier League win over Liverpool at Anfield last weekend and fuelled suggestions that the Toffees could challenge for a top-four position.

Heading into this weekend's fixtures, Carlo Ancelotti's side are seventh in the table, five points behind fourth-placed West Ham with a game in hand, while they are now level on points with sixth-placed Liverpool, also with a game in hand, and could potentially go above the champions in the table on Monday night.

Everton have actually lost eight of their 24 league games this term, though, which is a high number considering their position in the table, while their recent home form in England's top flight has been disappointing, suffering defeats in four of their last five league fixtures at Goodison Park.

Ancelotti's team will certainly be looking to secure maximum points from their next two matches against Southampton and West Bromwich Albion ahead of a difficult trip to Chelsea on March 8, while they also have an FA Cup quarter-final with Manchester City to come next month.

The Toffees suffered a 2-0 defeat when they travelled to Southampton for the reverse game earlier this season, while the two sides played out a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park during the 2019-20 campaign.

Danny Ings in action for Southampton on January 30, 2021© Reuters

Southampton, meanwhile, have not won in the Premier League since overcoming Liverpool at the start of January, suffering seven defeats in their last eight league fixtures.

A disappointing run of form has seen the Saints slide down the table into 14th position, now 10 points off the top six and only eight points clear of the relegation zone, level on matches with 18th-placed Fulham.

It is difficult to imagine Ralph Hasenhuttl's side being dragged into trouble at this stage but just five points separates them from 17th-placed Newcastle United, and it is not impossible to see how the strugglers could quickly become candidates for a potential shock relegation if their poor form continues.

Southampton have found it difficult on their travels this season, winning just three of their 12 matches, suffering five defeats in the process, but they can take confidence from Everton's issues at Goodison Park.

Everton Premier League form: LWDLLW
Everton form (all competitions): WDWLLW

Southampton Premier League form: LLLLDL
Southampton form (all competitions): LLWLDL


Team News

Dominic Calvert-Lewin celebrates scoring for Everton against Manchester United in the Premier League on February 6, 2021© Reuters

Everton boss Ancelotti is expected to name both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Allan in his starting XI on Monday night after both players made their return from injuries as substitutes against Liverpool.

Yerry Mina and Jean-Philippe Gbamin are still unavailable for selection, but the Toffees are otherwise in good shape, handing Ancelotti somewhat of a selection dilemma.

Seamus Coleman was excellent against Liverpool but could drop out as the hosts consider switching to a back four, while Andre Gomes is likely to drop out of the midfield to allow Allan to return.

As for Southampton, William Smallbone, Michael Obafemi, Kyle Walker-Peters, Ibrahima Diallo and Theo Walcott are all unavailable through injury, while a thigh problem will see on-loan Liverpool attacker Takumi Minamino miss out.

Oriol Romeu looks likely to miss the remainder of the season due to a fractured ankle, meanwhile, with Hasenhuttl's side suffering a number of injuries at a key stage of the campaign.

Danny Ings and Moussa Djenepo should return to the starting XI following the clash with Leeds, while there is expected to be another start in defence for Mohammed Salisu.

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Holgate, Godfrey, Keane, Digne; Doucoure, Davies, Allan; Rodriguez, Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Bednarek, Salisu, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Djenepo, Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Tella; Ings, Adams


SM words green background

We say: Everton 2-0 Southampton

Southampton's injury problems could hardly have come at a worse stage of the season, and it is difficult to imagine the Saints returning to winning ways against Everton. The Toffees will be in confident mood following their win over Liverpool, and we fully expect Ancelotti's side to collect another three points here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 43.43%. A win for Everton had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.


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Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl pictured in February 2021
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