Europa League Gameweek 3
Oct 22, 2026 5.45pm
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Ararat-Armenia

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 5.45pm
Ararat-Armenia 1 - 4 Sparta Prague

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 8.00pm
Sunderland 1 - 0 AZ

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Ararat-Armenia has a probability of 30.43% and a draw has a probability of 22.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Ararat-Armenia win is 2-1 (7.24%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.44%).

Result

Ararat-Armenia 30.43% ▼ (-1.58)
Draw 22.45% ▲ (+0.38)
AZ Alkmaar 47.11% ▲ (+1.19)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.85% ▼ (-0.97)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.27% ▼ (-1.49)
Under 1.5 18.73% ▲ (+1.49)
Over 2.5 59.81% ▼ (-2.75)
Under 2.5 40.19% ▲ (+2.75)
Over 3.5 37.3% ▼ (-2.35)
Under 3.5 62.7% ▲ (+2.35)
Over 4.5 22.99% ▼ (-1.75)
Under 4.5 77.01% ▲ (+1.75)

First Half Winner

Ararat-Armenia 27.12% ▼ (-0.95)
Draw 36.2% ▼ (-1.33)
AZ Alkmaar 36.67% ▲ (+2.25)

Team To Score First

Ararat-Armenia 44.32% ▼ (-3.14)
No Goal 4.58% ▲ (+0.43)
AZ Alkmaar 51.1% ▲ (+2.71)

Corners

Over 8 61.04% ▼ (-2.86)
Equal 8 10.71% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 8 28.25% ▲ (+2.61)
Over 9 49.88% ▼ (-2.91)
Equal 9 11.16% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 9 38.96% ▲ (+2.86)
Over 10.5 39.17% ▼ (-2.73)
Under 10.5 60.83% ▲ (+2.73)

Ararat-Armenia Goals

Over 1.5 35.72% ▼ (-2.53)
Under 1.5 64.28% ▲ (+2.53)
Over 2.5 14.58% ▼ (-1.89)
Under 2.5 85.42% ▲ (+1.90)
Over 3.5 5.25% ▼ (-0.96)
Under 3.5 94.75% ▲ (+0.96)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5 78.14% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 0.5 21.86% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 1.5 49.1% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 1.5 50.9% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 2.5 24.48% ▼ (-0.49)
Under 2.5 75.52% ▲ (+0.48)
Over 3.5 9.93% ▼ (-0.35)
Under 3.5 90.07% ▲ (+0.35)

Score analysis

Ararat-Armenia 30.43%
Draw 22.45%
AZ Alkmaar 47.1%
Ararat-Armenia
2-1 @ 7.24% ▼ (-0.42)
1-0 @ 6.01% ▲ (+0.38)
2-0 @ 4.27% ▲ (+0.14)
3-1 @ 3.24% ▼ (-0.30)
3-2 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.31)
3-0 @ 1.94% ▼ (-0.21)
Other @ 5.04% ▼ (-0.88)
Total : 30.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.44% ▲ (+0.42)
2-2 @ 5.76% ▼ (-0.25)
0-0 @ 4.58% ▲ (+0.43)
3-3 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 0.21% ▼ (-0.09)
Total : 22.45%
AZ Alkmaar
1-2 @ 9.4% ▲ (+0.09)
0-1 @ 8.12% ▲ (+0.68)
0-2 @ 6.77% ▲ (+0.70)
1-3 @ 5.3% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 3.92% ▲ (+0.13)
2-3 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 9.72% ▼ (-0.26)
Total : 47.1%