Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Magpies had a probability of 20.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.28%) and 1-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Magpies win it was 1-0 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.