Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Magpies had a probability of 33.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Magpies win was 1-2 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.