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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.69%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 18.79% and a draw had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.49%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (4.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 18.79% | 18.52% | 62.69% |
| Both teams to score 65.7% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.44% | 28.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.57% | 49.43% |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.09% | 27.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.46% | 63.53% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.14% | 8.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.66% | 30.34% |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 4.88% 1-0 @ 3.16% 3-2 @ 2.52% 3-1 @ 2.08% 2-0 @ 2.01% Other @ 4.15% Total : 18.79% | 1-1 @ 7.65% 2-2 @ 5.92% 0-0 @ 2.47% 3-3 @ 2.03% Other @ 0.45% Total : 18.52% | 1-2 @ 9.27% 1-3 @ 7.49% 0-2 @ 7.27% 0-1 @ 6% 0-3 @ 5.87% 2-3 @ 4.78% 1-4 @ 4.54% 0-4 @ 3.56% 2-4 @ 2.9% 1-5 @ 2.2% 0-5 @ 1.72% 2-5 @ 1.4% 3-4 @ 1.23% Other @ 4.47% Total : 62.69% |