Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.