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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.99%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 22.09% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (5.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 56.99% | 20.92% | 22.09% |
| Both teams to score 62.13% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.52% | 35.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.48% | 57.52% |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.61% | 12.39% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.74% | 38.26% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.92% | 29.08% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35% | 65% |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 9.7% 2-0 @ 7.86% 1-0 @ 7.52% 3-1 @ 6.76% 3-0 @ 5.47% 3-2 @ 4.17% 4-1 @ 3.53% 4-0 @ 2.86% 4-2 @ 2.18% 5-1 @ 1.47% 5-0 @ 1.19% 5-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.38% Total : 56.99% | 1-1 @ 9.29% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 3.6% 3-3 @ 1.72% Other @ 0.31% Total : 20.92% | 1-2 @ 5.74% 0-1 @ 4.45% 0-2 @ 2.75% 2-3 @ 2.47% 1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.19% Total : 22.09% |