Seeking to recover from opening defeats in CAF World Cup 2022 qualification Group B, Equatorial Guinea and Mauritania lock horns on matchday two of the second round on Tuesday evening.
The hosts suffered a 3-0 defeat to Tunisia to kick off Group B in the worst way possible, while Mauritania went down 2-0 to Zambia.
Match preview
© Reuters
Forced to do it the hard way given their 132nd-placed ranking, Equatorial Guinea had to overcome South Sudan in order to make it this far in Qualifying, where a second-leg winner from former Birmingham City and Middlesbrough man Emilio Nsue saw his side progress 2-1 on aggregate to reach round two.
However, facing a side 104 places higher than them in the FIFA World Rankings was always going to be a challenging affair, as Tunisia trio Dylan Bronn, Ellyes Skhiri and Wahbi Khazri all netted in the second 45 minutes to condemn Equatorial Guinea to a dampening 3-0 defeat on Friday night.
Juan Micha's side were taking part in their first game for over five months that day - ironically their most recent encounter before that was an African Cup of Nations Qualifying defeat to Tunisia - and they are already rooted to the bottom of the standings after one game.
Equatorial Guinea do have next year's AFCON tournament to look forward to after qualifying in second place from their group earlier this year - their first appearance at the continental tournament since 2015 - but their bid to make the World Cup Finals for the first time ever has already started off on a sour note.
Meanwhile, Mauritania entered at the second round stage of Qualifying courtesy of their 100th-placed world ranking, but as was the case with their upcoming opponents, their bid to make Qatar 2022 began in dismal fashion against Zambia.
Brighton & Hove Albion's Enock Mwepu took just 10 minutes to break the deadlock on Friday before Prince Mumba doubled Zambia's advantage, and while Mamadou Niass made things interesting with 20 minutes to go, Mauritania ultimately fell to a 2-1 defeat.
Approaching his seven-year anniversary in charge of the Lions of Chinguetti, former France international Corentin Martins has steered his side to two consecutive AFCON tournaments - successfully leading Mauritania to next year's edition after a group-stage finish in 2019 - and they have enjoyed quite the rise up the world rankings since Martins took the reins.
However, an opening-day defeat means that they are once again facing an uphill battle to make the World Cup Finals for the first time ever, but they can boast two previous 3-0 victories against Equatorial Guinea during AFCON qualification in 2014.
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Team News
Equatorial Guinea talisman Nsue was due to take part in September's fixtures but withdrew from the squad for non-injury related reasons, so Iban Salvador should continue to spearhead the hosts' attack.
Micha may still ponder changes following his side's largely disappointing showing on the opening matchday, with 19-year-old Sevilla C full-back Nestor Senra hoping to make his full debut for the national team after coming off the bench last time out.
As for Mauritania, Niass has put his name in the hat for a start after coming off the bench to strike a consolation against Zambia, so Ismail Diakite's spot in the team could be at risk.
However, former Fulham striker Aboubakar Kamara was nowhere to be seen on the opening day, while captain El Hacen is a big miss following his cruciate ligament rupture back in June.
Equatorial Guinea possible starting lineup:
Owono; Akapo, Anieboh, Ndong, Senra; Buyla, Bikoro, Ganet; Obama, Salvador, Miranda
Mauritania possible starting lineup:
Diaw; Demba, Ba, B. Ndiaye, Abderrahmane; Mahmoud, Dellahi, Coulibaly; Niass, Khalil, Diakite
We say: Equatorial Guinea 2-2 Mauritania
Both nations ought to feel that this is a winnable fixture following disappointing results on the opening day, and an exciting affair could therefore be in store for the neutrals.
However, we are struggling to separate the two bottom-of-the-group sides and ultimately expect an entertaining encounter to end with the spoils shared.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 0-1 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match.
