Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 51.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.