Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Swindon Town
34.94% ( 0.12)	24.98% ( 0.29)	40.08% ( -0.41)

Both teams to score 57.59% (

-1.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.22% (

-1.32)

45.78% (

1.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.9% (

-1.27)

68.09% (

1.27)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.52% (

-0.55)

25.47% (

0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.69% (

-0.76)

60.31% (

0.76)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27% (

-0.78)

22.72% (

0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.61% (

-1.16)

56.39% (

1.17)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 34.94%

Swindon Town 40.08%

Draw 24.97%

Exeter City	Draw	Swindon Town
2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.32) 2-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 3.66% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.58% Total : 34.94%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.32) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97%	1-2 @ 8.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.28) 0-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.29% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.25% Total : 40.08%