Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.89%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.