Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.99%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.35%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.