Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 56.57%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 21.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for VVV-Venlo in this match.