Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 45.11%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almere City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.