Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 49.41%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 25.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 0-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MVV Maastricht would win this match.