Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 2-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.