Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong PSV win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong PSV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.73%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.