Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 51.69%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.