Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Volendam win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Volendam win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.66%) and 3-1 (5.17%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.