Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 54.76%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 23.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.5%) and 1-0 (7.38%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for De Graafschap in this match.