Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Telstar win with a probability of 57.25%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 22.12% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Telstar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.62%) and 1-0 (7.15%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.