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Leverkusen logo
DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Dec 6, 2023 at 5pm UK
BayArena
Paderborn logo
B. Leverkusen
3 - 1
SC Paderborn
Okoh Boniface (12'), Palacios (28'), Schick (87')
Hincapie (16')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Klaas (83')
Bilbija (45'), Kinsombi (85')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-1 Dortmund
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: SC Paderborn 1-0 Hannover
Sunday, December 3 at 12.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 SC Paderborn

SC Paderborn pulled off a major upset on their travels in the second round, but we do not see them managing the same again against a Bayer Leverkusen side who are yet to lose a competitive game this term. Even with rotations anticipated, Alonso's men should certainly have the quality to progress to the quarter-finals on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 66.97%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 15.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.34%) and 3-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a SC Paderborn win it was 1-2 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawSC Paderborn
66.97% (-0.047000000000011 -0.05) 17.55% (0.134 0.13) 15.48% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 61.95% (-0.793 -0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.88% (-0.881 -0.88)30.11% (0.882 0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.67% (-1.068 -1.07)51.33% (1.068 1.07)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.64% (-0.238 -0.24)8.36% (0.239 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.9% (-0.598 -0.6)29.1% (0.597 0.6)
SC Paderborn Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.6% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)32.4% (0.685 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.08% (-0.781 -0.78)68.91% (0.78 0.78)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 66.97%
    SC Paderborn 15.48%
    Draw 17.55%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawSC Paderborn
2-1 @ 9.4% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.34% (0.224 0.22)
3-1 @ 7.78% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.9% (0.107 0.11)
1-0 @ 6.72% (0.256 0.26)
4-1 @ 4.83% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-2 @ 4.38% (-0.098000000000001 -0.1)
4-0 @ 4.28% (0.016 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.72% (-0.094 -0.09)
5-1 @ 2.4% (-0.064 -0.06)
5-0 @ 2.13% (-0.016 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.35% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-3 @ 1.02% (-0.055 -0.05)
6-1 @ 0.99% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 66.97%
1-1 @ 7.57% (0.151 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 2.71% (0.133 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.65% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 17.55%
1-2 @ 4.27% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-1 @ 3.05% (0.095 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-2 @ 1.72% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.6% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 15.48%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn

Bayer Leverkusen
90.2%
Draw
2.4%
SC Paderborn
7.3%
41
Head to Head
Jan 19, 2020 5pm
Gameweek 18
SC Paderborn
1-4
B. Leverkusen
Srbeny (51')
Vasiliadis (22'), Gjasula (35'), Sabiri (73'), Gueye (76')
Volland (11', 14'), Baumgartlinger (36'), Havertz (75')
Havertz (90')
Oct 29, 2019 7.45pm
Second Round
B. Leverkusen
1-0
SC Paderborn
Alario (26')
Weiser (70')

Gjasula (40')
Aug 17, 2019 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
B. Leverkusen
3-2
SC Paderborn
Bailey (10'), Havertz (19'), Volland (69')
Wendell (26'), Dragovic (62')
Michel (15'), Mamba (25')
Mar 8, 2015 4.30pm
Oct 4, 2014 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
2-2
SC Paderborn
Bender (42'), Bellarabi (90')
Jedvaj (24'), Bender (44'), Son (53')
Koc (20'), Stoppelkamp (87')
Hunemeier (6'), Bruckner (80'), Rupp (93')
Bakalorz (72')
rhs 2.0
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