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Attendance: 16,230
Swansea logo
Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2020 at 3pm UK
 
Derby logo

2-3

Dhanda (56'), Naughton (58')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Waghorn (8'), Holmes (64'), Lawrence (80')

Preview: Swansea City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole provides team news, predicted lineups and a full preview of Saturday's Championship fixture meeting between Swansea City and Derby County.

Swansea City head into their meeting with Derby County on Saturday afternoon sitting four points adrift of the Championship playoff places.

While the Rams make the long trip to the Liberty Stadium in 13th position, Philip Cocu will be encouraged by the team's performances since the arrival of Wayne Rooney.


Match preview

Excitable Derby boss Phillip Cocu on January 11, 2020© Reuters

With Derby not coming close to replicating their form under Frank Lampard, there have been times this season when there has been talk of the Rams potentially parting ways with Philip Cocu.

However, the highly-regarded Dutchman has witnessed his side produce an upturn in form in recent weeks, taking them into mid-table in the Championship and the FA Cup fifth round.

While Cocu will acknowledge that his team are still far away from where he expects them to be, four wins and two draws from their last seven league matches has provided the former Netherlands international with plenty of encouragement.

The influence of Rooney is an obvious positive for Derby, although the return to form of Martyn Waghorn and Chris Martin is also aiding the club's efforts to make a late bid for the playoffs.

To achieve that target, they may have to take points off some of their upcoming opponents, many of which are competing for the same goal, but Cocu will feel that his squad are now playing with the confidence required to become a factor at the right end of the table.

Despite holding a six-point lead over the next visitors to the Liberty Stadium, Swansea must make improvements if they are to remain competitive for a top-six spot.

Just five goals have been scored in their last seven league fixtures, a run which has produced just nine points, and it highlights where Steve Cooper needs to find a solution.

The performances of recent arrival Rhian Brewster have been an obvious plus, although the fact that the Liverpool loanee is already fourth in the scoring charts suggests that he requires help in the final third.

On the plus side, Swansea have successive home fixtures having put together a five-match undefeated streak in South Wales since the end of November.

Swansea City Championship form: DWDWLD
Swansea City form (all competitions): WLDWLD

Derby County form: WWDWLW
Derby County form (all competitions): DWDLWW


Team News

Derby Country's Martyn Waghorn celebrates scoring their second goal with Wayne Rooney on January 2, 2020© Reuters

Cocu must decide whether to persist with his attack-minded formations, especially after their last away trip resulted in defeat to bottom-of-the-table side Luton Town.

Graeme Shinnie could potentially be brought back into the team in midfield, potentially in place of Waghorn out on the right.

Cooper is also unlikely to make many changes to his Swansea XI after their 1-1 draw at Preston North End.

Wayne Routledge is an option on the flank, while Jay Fulton may come into midfield at the expense of George Byers.

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Rodon, Guehi, Bidwell; Byers, Grimes; Ayew, Gallagher, Celina; Brewster

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Hamer; Bogle, Wisdom, Clarke, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie, Rooney; Holmes, Lawrence, Martin


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Swansea City 1-1 Derby County

With both teams being indifferent in the final third this season, we feel that this fixture could end as a low-scoring draw, a result which would not really benefit either side in their bid to make the playoffs.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 54.22%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a win it was 0-1 (6.33%).


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