Supporters' Shield contenders Los Angeles Galaxy visit rock-bottom Dallas on Saturday, having suffered an off-colour month so far.
July has not been kind to Greg Vanney's side, as they have picked up only four points from as many Western Conference games, while their struggling hosts have won just once since May.
Match preview
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Despite their recent stumble, in midweek, LA Galaxy moved within four points of leaders Seattle Sounders in the MLS Western Conference standings, after the Washington club's weekend defeat at Minnesota.
While Sounders slipped up, the Galaxy failed to make hay as they fell to a second loss in four matches. That 2-1 reverse at Vancouver Whitecaps' temporary Utah headquarters - despite taking an early lead - was followed on Wednesday by a come-from-behind 2-2 draw against Real Salt Lake at the same venue.
Victor Vazquez produced a flash of brilliance to help turn the match around when it appeared the home side were set to cruise towards a straightforward victory, before Rayan Raveloson headed in Julian Araujo's cross in the 77th minute to complete the comeback.
In recent weeks, coach Greg Vanney has lost both his top scorer Javier Hernandez and the heart of his midfield - half of which is on international duty - so a drop in standards was perhaps inevitable. Though the Galaxy have scored six goals in four games since 'Chicharito' was first sidelined, they have clearly been less able to convert opportunities into precious points.
In fact, their only league success since the former Manchester United and Real Madrid striker swapped the penalty area for the treatment room came in the reverse fixture with Dallas, when Vanney's men were comfortable 3-1 winners.
After missing out on the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, reaching the all-important season finale this time around is the Galaxy's singular aim in 2021, so a repeat result on Saturday will be expected against lacklustre opposition.
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Still rooted to the foot of the table, Dallas are now winless in their last four games after suffering a 1-0 defeat to the Portland Timbers and then going down 2-0 at Colorado Rapids within the space of four days.
Having conceded in the 84th minute against Portland, Luchi Gonzalez's luckless side let in a further two second-half goals on Wednesday and were unable to provide a response.
That latest setback was all the more frustrating, as Dallas had applied steady pressure for most of the first half, but despite repeatedly flooding into the final third, they were unable to breach Colorado's defences.
Former academy director Gonzalez has now seen his side lose all seven of their MLS matches on the road this term - failing to score on five occasions - so will be relieved to be returning to Toyota Stadium this weekend, where they actually remain undefeated so far this year. A tally of 11 points from seven games on home turf, then, bodes well for the visit of an LA Galaxy outfit which may be flying high in the standings, but are perhaps more vulnerable given current personnel problems.
Should the Toros have designs on arresting their decline soon - and making an improbable late charge for the playoffs - they will need to sharpen up significantly, though, as after welcoming the Galaxy to Texas, they must face the West's top two: Sporting Kansas City and Seattle Sounders.
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Team News
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LA Galaxy are facing a fifth consecutive game without MLS joint-top scorer 'Chicharito' Hernandez and his Mexican compatriots, Jonathan dos Santos and Efrain Alvarez. The former has been recovering from a calf injury which could keep him out until the end of July, while the latter pair are with their national team at the ongoing Gold Cup.
Former France Under-20 defender Sega Coulibaly will also stay sidelined with a groin issue, so cannot add to his four appearances since joining from Nancy in April. Irish international Derrick Williams should therefore continue at the heart of the visitors' back four, with either Kevin Cabral or Ethan Zubak set to deputise for Hernandez up front.
Dallas, meanwhile, could be missing Matt Hedges due to a hip problem, while winger Beni Redzic underwent ankle surgery at the end of last month and will be out for some time yet. Midfielder Bryan Acosta has been on duty with Honduras during the Gold Cup - and featured in the 3-2 win over Panama on Sunday.
Up front, former Benfica striker Franco Jara - who scored against the Galaxy in a losing cause last time these clubs met - has started as a lone frontman in the last two matches (his first starts since May) but drew a blank on both occasions. Therefore, teenager Ricardo Pepi could have a claim to start instead.
First-choice goalkeeper Jimmy Maurer signed a contract extension to 2023 last week and will make his 46th appearance for the club on Saturday.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Hollingshead, Bressan, Burgess, Nelson; Ricaurte, Schon; Pomykal, Ferreira, Twumasi; Jara
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Araujo, DePuy, Williams, Villafana; Vazquez, Raveloson, Kljestan; Grandsir, Zubak, Dunbar
We say: Dallas 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
Despite being without some key men and having faltered a little of late, LA Galaxy can still end the hosts' admirable record in Texas due to their individual quality in important areas.
Dallas are often predictable in the final third and have not hit the opposition's net since the last time these two teams met - they can also be vulnerable to conceding later on when things have not gone their way - so are set to stay bottom for a while yet.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 57.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Los Angeles Galaxy win it was 1-2 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dallas would win this match.
