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Croatia national football team
International Friendly
Mar 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
 
Bulgaria national football team

Croatia
2 - 1
Bulgaria

Modric (76' pen.), Kramaric (80')
Caleta-Car (33'), Barisic (78'), Pongracic (89')
Caleta-Car (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Despodov (69')
Despodov (65'), Hristov (86')
Despodov (70')

Preview: Croatia vs. Bulgaria - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's International Friendlies clash between Croatia and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Continuing their preparations for this year's World Cup, Croatia take on Bulgaria at Al Rayyan's Education City Stadium on Tuesday afternoon.

The Balkan nations will take part in their second friendly fixture of this international period, as Qatar readies itself for the first ever Middle Eastern finals.


Match preview

Croatia's Nikola Vlasic in action with Slovakia's Erik Jirka on October 11, 2021© Reuters

Having beaten their neighbours to World Cup qualification late last year, Croatia reconvened with Slovenia on Saturday, in the first game of their current international camp.

Zlatko Dalic's team narrowly failed to add another win to their previous run of five from six matches, as Slovenia's Jaka Bijol scored his first international goal in stoppage time; cancelling out a first-half strike from Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramaric.

Nonetheless, that 1-1 draw continues an unbeaten streak since elimination from Euro 2020, as Dalic continues to show faith in a handful of fresh faces who have rejuvenated an ageing squad.

After a slow start to qualifying for Qatar 2022, the introduction of several younger debutants has yielded improving results over the past six months, and Croatia finished the post-Euros part of their Group H campaign unbeaten - dropping points only by drawing in Russia and against Slovakia at home; ultimately qualifying as group winners.

November's decisive win over the Russians in Split secured a place in history for the man who led his nation to the brink of global glory back in 2018, as Dalic became the country's first coach to qualify for three major tournaments.

Before his squad reconvene in the summer, then, when they kick off their latest Nations League campaign in League A Group 1 - alongside France, Austria and Denmark - some fringe players can stake a claim for inclusion by impressing on Tuesday.

Bulgaria coach Yasen Petrov pictured on June 5, 2021© Reuters

By contrast with their latest opponents, Bulgaria have been labouring to move on from their older generation under coach Yasen Petrov, and their latest defeat came at the hands of Qatar on Saturday evening.

After glimmers of hope arising from draws with European champions Italy and Northern Ireland in World Cup qualifying Group C, they were beaten 3-1 by Lithuania and 4-0 at the hands of group winners Switzerland to end up fourth in the table - eight points adrift of a playoff place.

In spite of another failure to qualify for the finals - they have not been present at football's global gathering since 1998 - Bulgaria managed to pick up some notable results along the way, as September's draw against the Azzurri was followed by a 2-1 win over Northern Ireland the following month.

Relative to their previous travails, a record of only three losses from their last eight outings represents progress of sorts for the Lions, but it has been six years since the national team last won a friendly fixture away from home - a 2-0 victory over North Macedonia back in March 2016.

As Petrov builds towards his team's Nations League games in the summer - where they will be pitted against the giant-killing North Macedonians, Gibraltar and Georgia - the morale boost from an unlikely win over the 2018 World Cup finalists would be warmly welcomed.

Croatia International Friendlies form:
  • D

Croatia form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D

Bulgaria International Friendlies form:
  • L

Bulgaria form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic on June 6, 2021© Reuters

After naming a strong squad with just one potential debutant for their trip to the Middle East, Croatia selected a relatively experienced side on Saturday, but Zlatko Dalic may be tempted to experiment a little more in midweek.

Before the camp got under way, the Croatia coach stated that each member of his 25-man travelling party will be offered minutes, so 147-cap skipper Luka Modric is set to be rested in midfield and 33-year-old Ivan Perisic could abdicate his role on the left wing.

Perisic's Inter teammate Marcelo Brozovic is unavailable due to injury this week, so it will be interesting to see if Dalic persists with a recent switch of shape to 3-5-2. If Croatia continue with such a setup, Celtic's Josip Juranovic would most likely start on the right side of midfield again.

Meanwhile, Bulgaria called up a couple of new names for this camp, with defenders Aleks Petkov and Miki Orachev both involved for the first time, and the former may even start on Tuesday after making his senior debut in the defeat to Qatar.

Experienced goalkeeper Nikolay Mihaylov, captain of Levski Sofia, should start again, as Ivan Karadzhov was omitted this month after playing in the 4-0 loss to Switzerland, while 33-year-old forward Dimitar Iliev was not included either.

Therefore, Kiril Despodov - who scored the Lions' only goal on Saturday - should join Todor Nedelev and Georgi Minchev up front, though Ascoli striker Atanas Iliev is also pushing for a start.

Croatia possible starting lineup:
Grbic; Gvardiol, Vida, Caleta-Car; Juranovic, Jakic, Kovacic, Pasalic, Sosa; Vlasic, Kramaric

Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Mihaylov; Turitsov, Petkov, P. Hristov, Bozhikov; Malinov, Kostadinov; Yomov, Nedelev, Despodov; G. Minchev


SM words green background

We say: Croatia 2-1 Bulgaria

Though the slow process of introducing up-and-coming players into the Bulgaria squad has started to have some effect, they remain vulnerable defensively and even a second-string Croatia side can pick them off at least once over the course of 90 minutes.

While experimentation with systems and personnel may dilute the second half, it could be a competitive duel between the two Balkan counterparts, with future selection at stake for several players taking to the field in Qatar's second city.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



ID:481771:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11237:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 65.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 10.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.24%) and 3-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.13%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Croatia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Croatia.


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Game History

How you voted: Croatia vs Bulgaria

Croatia
79.5%
Draw
18.2%
Bulgaria
2.3%
44
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